AGP Executive Report

Housing Support: Dubrovnik is boosting help for young buyers and families with a new “30 x 45” scheme: 30 non-refundable grants worth €45,000 each, up from €30,000 under the prior “30 x 30” programme, with applications open from 14 August until funds run out or 1 December. Aviation & Tourism Demand: Croatia’s airports handled about 5.5 million passengers in the first half of 2026 (+3% year on year), with Zagreb leading and Dubrovnik extending its international season; Air China’s planned Zagreb route is expected to lift China-linked traffic. Wealth Snapshot: UBS says Croatia ranked third globally for personal wealth growth between 2020 and 2025, with average wealth per adult up 29% (inflation-adjusted). Robotaxi Expansion: Uber and Pony.ai plan to scale their Zagreb-based commercial robotaxi service across Europe, targeting 2,000 robotaxis in five cities and bringing the service to the Uber app. Wildfire Pressure: Croatia’s firefighting teams battled blazes on the Adriatic, including an Omiš-area fire that injured dozens and forced evacuations; the wider region remains under extreme heat and drought risk. Energy Policy Watch: A new EU-wide review of post–energy-price-spike measures highlights 125+ interventions, mixing short-term relief with longer-term diversification efforts.

Croatian Exports: Mate Rimac says Croatia’s top export mix now includes luxury cars and battery/propulsion systems, citing Lider data where INA leads exports (€1.23bn), followed by Pliva Hrvatska and Končar, while Bugatti Rimac and Rimac Technology rank among the biggest exporters. Aviation & Tourism Demand: Croatia’s airports handled about 5.5m passengers in H1 2026 (+3%); June dipped ~3% y/y, but Zagreb is preparing a new Air China long-haul link and Dubrovnik is extending its international season. Housing Support in Dubrovnik: The city boosted grants for young families under its 30x45 scheme to €45,000 (from €30,000), enabled by tax changes to local affordable housing subsidies. Autonomous Mobility Expansion: Uber and Pony.ai plan to scale their robotaxi partnership from Zagreb to more than 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities, with Zagreb service set to appear in the Uber app. Tourism Costs Pressure: Croatian hotel profitability is being squeezed by higher operating costs, even as revenues benefit from higher average prices. Public Policy & Culture: The University of Chile launched Croatian language and culture courses, while Croatia marks Assumption Day (Velika Gospa) as a national holiday. Safety & Climate: Wildfires across Europe continue to disrupt travel and life, with Croatia reporting injuries and evacuations near Omiš.

Dubrovnik Housing Push: The City of Dubrovnik raised its “30 x 45” grant scheme for young people and young families by 50%, offering non-refundable support of €45,000 (up from €30,000) to buy, build or extend homes, with the increase enabled by tax changes to local affordable housing subsidies. Croatian Tourism Under Strain: Hotel profitability is being squeezed by sharply higher operating costs, even as revenues hold up thanks to higher average prices and last-minute demand. Omiš Wildfire Fallout: A major wildfire near Omiš forced roughly 1,000 residents and tourists to evacuate by sea and road, with 36 injured and parts of the town losing power; authorities warned travel disruptions could hit peak-season business. Robotaxi Expansion in Croatia: Uber and Pony.ai plan to scale their partnership from Zagreb into a rollout of more than 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities, with Zagreb service set to integrate into the Uber app. EU/Regional Governance: Mayors from Zagreb and other regional capitals met in Sarajevo and adopted the Sarajevo Declaration 2026, focusing on sustainable development, peace and city-to-city cooperation.

Croatian Tourism Under Pressure: A wildfire near Omiš swept through homes and vehicles overnight, forcing about 1,000 residents and tourists to evacuate by sea and road; 36 people were treated in Split, with seven on ventilators, and authorities say the damage could hit the peak-season economy. Hotel Profit Squeeze: Even with higher average room prices, rising operating costs are eroding profitability for Zagreb-listed Croatian hotel companies, with Q2 results showing resilience but continued margin pressure. Robotaxis Go Bigger in Europe: Uber and Pony.ai plan to expand their driverless push with 2,000 robotaxis across Europe, building on a commercial rollout already running in Zagreb. Inflation Watch: Croatia’s consumer price inflation eased further in July to the lowest level in five months, supporting household purchasing power. Travel Demand Signals: Agoda data shows European interest in India is surging for summer 2026, with Croatia among the fastest-growing European markets. Energy Finance (Region): EBRD-backed financing is moving renewable power forward in Romania, highlighting continued investment momentum in the wider region.

Wildfire Crisis in Dalmatia: Croatian maritime rescue teams pulled 194 people to safety overnight after a fast-moving wildfire near Omiš drove residents toward the sea; 40 were treated at Split hospital, with seven on ventilators, while parts of Omiš lost power and homes, cars and boats were damaged. Tourism & Transport Pressure: The fire hit Croatia’s peak summer season, with sections of the main coastal road closed and travel links between Split and Dubrovnik disrupted, raising fears of short-term losses for local businesses. Europe-Wide Heat Emergency: The same record heatwave is fueling major blazes across France, Germany, the UK, Greece and beyond, with evacuations and widespread disruption reported. Robotaxi Push (Croatia as a testbed): Uber and Pony.ai plan to expand their partnership to deploy 2,000 robotaxis across Europe, building on the Zagreb commercial service launched earlier this year. Inflation Watch: Croatia’s consumer inflation eased further in July to a five-month low, with prices up 3.9% year-on-year. Energy Finance (Regional): EBRD extended up to €120m for Romania’s Părău 2 solar-plus-battery project, supporting renewable output and grid flexibility.

Robotaxi Rollout in Croatia: Pony.ai and Uber are expanding their partnership, aiming to deploy 2,000+ robotaxis across Europe, building on the upcoming Zagreb service. Wildfire Risk to Tourism: A huge wildfire near Omis has forced evacuations and injured dozens, threatening homes and vehicles along Croatia’s Dalmatian coast. Croatian Tourism Marketing: Croatia’s National Tourist Board campaign starring John Malkovich (“Croatia – I Hear It’s Beautiful”) has racked up 17.3m views in under two months, boosting reach in key markets. Croatia Inflation Watch: Producer prices in Croatia eased for a second month—up 4.9% year-on-year in July—helped mainly by slower energy costs. Payments for Visitors: Revolut is offering a free physical card pickup at Dubrovnik airport baggage reclaim, targeting smoother spending for arriving tourists. EU Energy Sanctions Loophole: EU imports of refined petroleum products from Russian crude via third countries surged in July, with deliveries reaching Croatia among other markets. Business Travel Tech: LaLiga plans connected-ball tech across matches from 2026-27, a move aimed at transparency and fan experience. Sports Business Note: Ben Shelton defended his National Bank Open title in Montreal; doubles included Croatia’s Mate Pavic reaching the final.

Tourism Momentum: Croatia’s tourism minister Tonči Glavina says last-minute bookings are “saving August,” with eVisitor data showing 12.4m arrivals and 59.1m overnight stays in the first seven months (+1% y/y), and July alone up 2.5% in arrivals and 1% in nights. Work & Living Costs: A survey by Alma Career Croatia finds many employees are taking shorter breaks: the share planning up to 7 days of leave rose to 21% (from 15% in 2025), while longer summer breaks are down. Transport Shock: The Danube traffic collapse may stretch into autumn as the Mohovo Channel near Šarengrad remains too shallow; up to 60 voyages are postponed and Vukovar port estimates losses. Inflation Watch: Croatia producer price inflation eased for a second month—PPI up 4.9% y/y in July (down from 5.7% in June), driven mainly by energy (+14.7%). EU Energy & Sanctions: The EU doubled imports of Russian-derived petroleum products via intermediaries in July, with shipments routed through Turkey, India and Georgia, reaching countries including Croatia. Retail Real Estate: NEPI Rockcastle agreed to buy MegaPark Barakaldo in Bilbao for €252m, its first investment outside Central and Eastern Europe. Aviation: Qatar Airways will deploy a Boeing 787-8 on select Doha–Zagreb flights in October, nearly doubling capacity on those dates.

Croatian Tourism: Tourism minister Tonči Glavina says last-minute bookings are propping up August, with eVisitor data showing Croatia up slightly in the first seven months (12.4m arrivals and 59.1m overnight stays, +1% y/y). Local Wages: Zagreb’s average net salary hit €1,758 in May 2026 (+6.4% y/y), with a median net pay of €1,500—highlighting a wide earnings spread. Cost-of-Living Pressure: A survey by Alma Career Croatia finds many workers are taking shorter breaks: the share planning up to 7 days rose to 21% (from 15% in 2025), while longer holidays are down. Beach Rules Enforcement: Makarska started dawn patrols and seized towels and inflatables left overnight to stop “beach reservations.” Transport Disruption: Danube traffic is still stalled after record-low water levels, with up to 60 voyages postponed and losses already being estimated for Vukovar. EU Energy Compliance: An EU analysis says Russian-crude oil-product shipments at EU ports more than doubled in July; Croatia is among the receiving countries, raising enforcement questions. Rail Freight Expansion: European Loc Pool ordered 20 more Stadler EuroDual locomotives, expanding cross-border freight capability including Croatia.

Tourism & Wages: Dubrovnik kept momentum in 2026, topping 2.55 million overnight stays by Aug. 5, with arrivals up slightly year-on-year and the UK and US leading demand. Local Economy: Zagreb’s average monthly net salary hit €1,758 in May 2026, up 6.4% from a year earlier, while median net pay sat at €1,500—showing a wide earnings spread. Accommodation Market Pressure: Croatia’s crackdown on “beach reservations” saw towels and inflatables seized in Makarska, as officials patrol early hours to stop overnight claiming. Tourism Revenue Trend: June brought a dip in commercial accommodation overnight stays (down 6.1%), with Germany still the biggest foreign market but weaker than last year. Labour & Migration: More Filipinos are being registered to work in Croatia, with permits heavily concentrated in tourism and trade. Regional Connectivity: Air China plans direct Beijing–Bucharest–Zagreb flights from Sept. 4, adding a new China–Croatia link. EU Energy Compliance: EU ports recorded more Russian-origin oil-product cargoes in July despite the ban, raising enforcement questions. Business Logistics: euShipments Slovakia was taken over by Ruse-based euShipments, expanding its fulfillment network across Europe. Rail Freight: European Loc Pool ordered 20 more EuroDual locomotives from Stadler, with homologation covering Croatia and neighboring markets.

Aviation & Trade Links: Air China will launch a Beijing–Bucharest–Zagreb passenger route from Sept 4, running three times weekly, aiming to boost business and tourism ties between China and Croatia. Tourism Infrastructure: Dubrovnik’s Ruđer Bošković Airport is moving ahead with a €4.2m solar project, adding PV canopies over car parks plus a battery storage system to cut costs and improve summer parking comfort. Local Culture & Real Estate: Dubrovnik could finally get a dedicated concert hall at the Preparandija site, with plans for a ~450-seat auditorium, a smaller 150-seat hall, and a 204-space underground garage. Croatian Industry: Adriateh, a Zagreb-area car wash equipment maker, is marking 30 years and says Europe’s mature self-service market is pushing operators toward upgrades and customised solutions. Workforce Trends: Croatia’s foreign workforce permits fell in 2026 so far, with Nepalese numbers down sharply while Filipinos rose to become the third-largest group. Energy & Transport: European Loc Pool ordered 20 more EuroDual locomotives from Stadler, with homologation including Croatia, supporting freight links across Central Europe, the Adriatic and the Balkans. Environment & Risk: Drought across Europe is exposing WWII wrecks in the Danube and disrupting shipping and agriculture, underlining the economic pressure from extreme heat. Sports & Global Attention: Croatia’s Dinamo Zagreb is among clubs in the Champions League qualifying second-leg slate, with matches scheduled across Europe today.

Croatian Tourism Pulse: eVisitor says Croatia logged its best July in two years with 4.7m arrivals and 29.6m overnight stays, while July tourism revenues rose on higher prices and last-minute demand. Airport & Connectivity: Croatia’s airports handled 5.5m passengers in Jan–Jun (+3%); Dubrovnik kept growing (462k in June, +3.3% YoY) and is set to benefit from continued demand. Public Finance: Croatia’s public debt climbed by €4.6bn in a year to €55bn (end-April), driven mainly by central government long-term borrowing. Workforce Shifts: Foreign permits issued to workers fell in 2026; Nepalese numbers dropped sharply while Filipinos rose to ~15,700 permits, reshaping construction staffing. Energy & Infrastructure: Dubrovnik Airport is moving ahead with a €4.2m solar project, turning car parks into power stations with battery storage. Environment & Risk: Europe braces for another heatwave; drought is already exposing WWII wrecks in the Danube and worsening wildfire and water-stress pressures. Transport & Logistics: European Loc Pool ordered 20 more Stadler EuroDual locomotives, including homologation for Croatia, to strengthen freight links toward the Balkans and Türkiye. Local Cleanup: Gospić illegal waste remediation is restarting via new state procurement after an earlier tender drew no bids. FIFA Politics: Trump publicly backed Gianni Infantino amid the FIFA World Cup stake-sale controversy, adding political heat to the global football governance fight.

Croatian Tourism Pulse: eVisitor data show Croatia logged its best July in two years, with 4.7m arrivals and 29.6m overnight stays (+2.5% and +1% y/y), while January–July totals reached 12.4m arrivals and 59.1m nights. Public Finance Watch: Croatia’s public debt rose by €4.6bn in a year to €55bn (end-April), driven mainly by central government borrowing and long-term instruments. June Soft Patch: June tourism cooled, with commercial stays down 6.1% and arrivals down 6.6% y/y, hit hardest by a 28.1% plunge in German overnight stays. Air Travel Update: Croatian airports handled 5.5m passengers in Jan–Jun (+3% y/y); Dubrovnik led growth in June (+3.3%). Waste Cleanup in Gospić: the state is moving to remediate illegally dumped waste at a contaminated site, with new procurement launched after an initial tender drew no bids. Transport & Logistics: HŽ Cargo and Slovak Railtrans International plan a joint venture for intermodal freight, targeting 500,000 tonnes of new Adriatic cargo by 2028. Tech & Mobility: Pony.ai says its cumulative autonomous-driving distance passed 100m km as it pushes L4 commercialization, including a Zagreb launch earlier this year. Energy & Climate Risk: Europe braces for another heatwave; Croatia is already seeing scorching conditions, adding pressure to water and power systems.

Tourism Slowdown & Affordability Pressure: Croatia’s June tourism cooled: commercial accommodation logged 3.0m arrivals and 13.5m overnight stays, down 6.6% and 6.1% year-on-year, with German overnight stays plunging 28% (to 2.7m). Aviation Momentum: Still, air travel stayed resilient: Croatian airports handled 5.5m passengers in Jan–Jun (+3%), with Dubrovnik up 3.3% in June and Zagreb up 3.2% in the first half. Dubrovnik’s Overtourism Playbook: British media spotlighted Dubrovnik’s shift from “crowds” to management, pointing to measures that protect residents while keeping tourism viable. Transport & Logistics Push: HŽ Cargo and Slovak Railtrans International plan an intermodal joint venture to move 500,000 tonnes of Adriatic freight by 2028 (subject to approvals). Infrastructure Pipeline: Croatia’s major connectivity works continue, including preparation for another 44 km of highway and ongoing rail upgrades toward faster links. Energy & Industry Signals: MOL agreed to buy Shell’s stake in Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field (up to $720m), while Croatia’s long-running Chromos paint maker is set to end production in Croatia after 106 years. Climate Risk to Business: Europe braces for another heatwave and drought impacts, with Croatia flagged in forecasts and water stress concerns rising.

Energy & Industry: MOL Group is buying Shell’s stake in the Aphrodite offshore gas field in Cyprus, taking a 35% participating interest in Block 12 in a deal valued up to $720m—another major upstream move for the region’s energy players. Croatian Economy & Jobs: Croatia is set to lose industrial giant Chromos after 106 years as Kansai Helios ends production in Croatia, shifting output to Slovenia and Serbia while keeping only a sales network in Zagreb. Transport Investment: Croatia’s big infrastructure push continues: a second track on the Hrvatski Leskovac–Karlovac rail line (up to 160 km/h) is progressing toward completion by end-2029, alongside major road and tunnel works. Labour Market: Croatia’s workforce keeps climbing, with 1.8m+ insured workers registered at end-July 2026 (+0.8% year-on-year). Tourism Spending: Even with slightly fewer visitors, Dubrovnik-Neretva County shows higher spending—fiscalised receipts up 4.5–8% and transaction value up 9–10% year-on-year. Climate Risk: Record heat and drought are disrupting the Danube and wider Europe, threatening shipping, hydropower and water supplies—an issue that can quickly feed into costs for Croatian businesses. Energy Supply Watch: Croatia may face tighter natural gas storage ahead of autumn, while electricity supply is expected to remain adequate despite hydrology and river-temperature pressures. Business Travel Costs: Diesel prices in Croatia are expected to rise next Tuesday, while petrol may dip slightly, depending on market moves and any government intervention.

Croatia’s Jobs Momentum: Croatia hit a new labour-market milestone with 1.8 million insured workers registered at the end of July (up 0.8% year-on-year), led by wholesale/retail, manufacturing, construction and tourism. Transport Investment Push: Croatia’s next wave of infrastructure spending is in full swing, including a €348.5m contract for modernising and electrifying the Hrvatski Leskovac–Karlovac rail line (targeting up to 160 km/h, works through end-2029) as part of the Zagreb–Rijeka lowland corridor. Tourism Cash Still Rising: Even with slightly weaker visitor numbers in July, Dubrovnik-Neretva County’s fiscalisation data shows receipts up 4.5–8% and transaction values up 9–10%, pointing to higher spend per guest. Energy Watch: Croatia could face autumn natural gas storage concerns, while drought and river-temperature issues also affect electricity output, including a preventive reduction at Krško. Cost at the Pump: Provisional fuel-price changes from Tuesday point to diesel rising (and petrol edging down). Local Business & Agriculture: Istria launches a pilot to build a local pig-to-pršut supply chain, aiming to cut reliance on pigs from elsewhere in Croatia. Border Strain: A reader reports a seven-hour Croatia border ordeal in extreme heat, with limited lanes and scarce water/toilets. EU Enlargement Debate: The EU’s next-members question is back in focus as leaders weigh whether the bloc can absorb new countries. FIFA Power Struggle: Croatia remains among the federations facing pressure amid the Infantino controversy, with Norway calling for his resignation while others back him.

Energy Security: Croatia could face natural gas problems this autumn as underground storage is filled poorly, while electricity supply is expected to stay adequate thanks to nuclear generation in France and temporary output reductions at Krško due to Sava River overheating risk. Fuel Costs: New fuel prices are expected from Tuesday, with Eurosuper 95 down to €1.60/l, while diesel rises (Eurodiesel to €1.77/l; blue diesel to €1.25/l), pending possible government intervention. Tourism Cashflow: Even with slightly fewer visitors, Dubrovnik-Neretva County shows stronger spending—fiscalisation receipts up 4.5–8% and total transaction value up 9–10% year-on-year. Veterans’ Pensions: Croatia has opened a public consultation on pension law amendments for war veterans and security personnel, aiming to remove remaining reductions and adjust calculations toward time spent in Homeland War combat roles. Agri & Food Supply Chains: Istria launches a pilot to build a local pig-farming supply chain for Istrian pršut, starting with 250 piglets and certified rearing to cut reliance on pigs from Slavonia. Climate Impact on Business: The Croatian Chamber of Commerce warns climate change is already hitting the economy and calls for faster adaptation and decarbonisation investment. Regional Context: Serbia and Ukraine pledge deeper economic ties and aim to finalise a long-stalled free trade deal by year-end.