AGP Executive Report

Istria R&D Push: Istria County signed a €4.87m contract to rebuild the former “old surgery” building in Pula General Hospital into the ISTRAživački centar METRIS, a ~€10.18m high-tech research hub linking labs with local SMEs, with advanced microscopes, prototyping and AI-enabled capabilities. Adriatic Fisheries: Croatia is set to cut sardine fishing days in Adriatic zone A from 20 to five per month for each authorization until the winter ban, after assessments showed sardine biomass at historically low levels and fishing mortality far above target. Public Transport Upgrade: Dubrovnik unveiled 12 fully electric MAN buses (project value €10.49m, mostly EU-funded) to modernize Libertas routes, with plans to expand the fleet to 14 new electric buses. Defense Tech Export: Osijek-based Orqa says the US Army’s 2nd Infantry Division selected it as an FPV drone supplier after field evaluation, marking another step toward the US defense market. Energy & Policy Watch: EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos outlined a reform plan built on transitional measures, internal changes, safeguards and gradual integration. Croatia–US Ties: Zagreb met US Congresswoman Claudia Tenney to expand trade, investment and energy cooperation and advance a double taxation treaty. Waste Cleanup: Gospić illegal waste remediation moves forward after two bids were received for the first phases, covering ~4,500 tonnes of mixed hazardous waste and ~650 tonnes in big bags. Tourism Connectivity: United Airlines announced 10 new 2027 destinations, including nonstop service to Ljubljana, boosting direct links for the region.

Port of Rijeka & Automotive Imports: Croatia’s port is ramping up car logistics after the first major shipment of Chinese vehicles arrived at Rijeka, with over 2,000 cars delivered and more expected as the port expands capacity. Consumer Lending: Croatia is tightening consumer credit rules from October, a move aimed at cooling household borrowing and managing financial risk. Tourism Push: Dubrovnik is edging toward 900,000 tourists as the 2026 season builds, while Istria is getting a major boost from a German TV feature reaching millions. EU Enlargement & Croatia’s Region: EU Commissioner Marta Kos outlines a new “Helsinki Moment” for enlargement—internal reforms, safeguards and gradual integration—while extreme heat and drought are hitting European harvest forecasts, including Croatia. Tech & Mobility in Croatia: Uber’s robotaxi service is already live in Zagreb, and Waymo plans to test autonomous vehicles in Munich next year, signaling intensifying competition in European mobility. Business Networks: A new alliance of European chambers in Western Australia includes Croatia’s business community, aiming to grow trade and investment links with the EU.

Chinese Car Imports: The Port of Rijeka received its first major shipment of Chinese cars—over 2,000 vehicles—boosting Croatia’s role as an entry point for the European auto market, with more arrivals expected as logistics partners line up. EU Enlargement Overhaul: EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos outlined reforms aimed at protecting rule-of-law standards and speeding up decision-making, including gradual integration for candidates and tighter accession safeguards ahead of an October leaders’ discussion. Autonomous Mobility in Croatia/Europe: Waymo will start testing robotaxis in Munich next year (commercial service targeted for end-2027), while Uber has already launched self-driving rides in Zagreb—another sign that Croatia is becoming a regional testbed for new mobility services. EU Trade Defenses: The European Commission is widening trade defenses as imports of Chinese vehicles, batteries and machinery rise, with new monitoring and anti-dumping pressure on sectors linked to industrial overcapacity. Croatia Housing Push: Osijek-Baranja County launched a long-term rental-to-own programme for young families, offering 10-year rentals with an option to buy later. Tourism Demand Signal: Kensington’s luxury travel data shows Croatia among the fastest-growing destinations, with bookings up 61% year-on-year. Consumer Credit: Croatia is set to tighten consumer lending rules from October, aiming to curb household risk as costs and prices remain under pressure.

Housing & Demographics: Osijek-Baranja County launched “Our Slavonia and Baranja – Our Home,” building 43 houses and 3 apartment buildings (52 units) for young families, with long-term rentals (at least 10 years) and a right to buy after 10 years, crediting rent toward the purchase price. Tourism Watch: Dubrovnik is nearing 900,000 tourists in 2026, with 897,379 arrivals and 2.88m overnight stays through Aug 17—about 1% ahead of last year, led by the UK, US and France. Climate & Safety Tech: Croatia expanded its AI-based early wildfire detection network to 75 cameras across 25 new locations, boosting 24/7 monitoring in protected areas and faster county response. Healthcare Investment: KBC Rijeka carried out its first robot-assisted gynecological surgeries using a €5.11m system fully funded from the state budget. Property Market Snapshot: A €200,000 budget buys far more space in Pula (56.8 m²) than Split (33.3 m²), highlighting the Zagreb–Split gap in asking prices. Infrastructure & Local Capacity: Dubac Cemetery in the Dubrovnik area is moving into its final phase, with first new plots expected in early 2027 and potential expansion toward ~3,500 graves.

Croatian Health Tech: KBC Rijeka performed its first robot-assisted gynaecological surgeries after installing a €5.11m robotic system fully funded from Croatia’s state budget, aiming for smaller incisions and faster recovery. Housing & Consumer Pressure: A Kvadratko analysis shows €200,000 buys far more space in Pula (56.8 m²) than Split (33.3 m²), while Zadar residents report record-high grocery costs and rising prices hitting everyday budgets. Property Market Snapshot: Zadar was also flagged as Croatia’s most expensive city in July, underscoring how local growth can squeeze households. Transport & Infrastructure: Work has started on the second and third phases of the Drniš bypass, a €34m-scale push expected to support Šibenik Port and the wider expressway corridor. Energy & Cost Outlook: Croatia is facing higher fuel-price pressure tied to global shocks, even without a shortage. EU/Region Watch: The European Commission is preparing an accelerated Montenegro accession push, with concerns about “hybrid influence” potentially slowing reforms.

Croatian Consumer Credit Tightening: The Croatian National Bank has opened a public consultation on rules from October that cut banks’ allowed exemptions for consumer lending, lowering quotas for loans breaching DSTI and LTV limits. Cross-Border Friction: A new Croatia–Bosnia border crossing at Gradiška is operating on a temporary permit after parts of the old bridge collapsed, with the long-term legal status still unresolved. Wages Up: Croatia’s average net salary rose to €1,555 in June (+7.7% year-on-year), with air transport the top-paying sector at €2,330. Energy Prices Watch: Croatia isn’t facing a diesel shortage, but experts warn prices will likely stay high due to tight European supply and refinery limits. Tourism Signals from Župa dubrovačka: Arrivals are up versus last year, while overnight stays are about 2% lower, with UK and US still leading. Local Economy & Infrastructure: Zagreb is investing over €3m in tram track renovation, while Ryanair ramps up Zagreb–London demand (+20%). Sustainability in Industry: EcoCortec says it manufactures compostable stretch/shrink films in Croatia as drop-in replacements for polyethylene on existing packaging lines.

Consumer Credit Tightening: Croatia’s central bank (HNB) is set to further rein in consumer lending from October, cutting banks’ allowed “exemption” shares for riskier loans—e.g., residential loans with DSTI above 45% drop to 10% (from 20%), and high LTV real-estate-backed lending quotas fall to 10% (from 20%). Household Pay Watch: June data shows average net salaries in Croatia rose to €1,555, up 7.7% year-on-year, with air transport the top-paying sector at €2,330. Housing & Rentals: Croatia is preparing a new Law on Renting Apartments, aiming to tighten contract rules, extend notice periods, and push more long-term rentals onto the market. Border Bureaucracy: A new Croatia–Bosnia border crossing at Gradiška is operating on a temporary legal basis after the old bridge damage, keeping traffic in limbo. Tourism Pulse: Župa dubrovačka reports more arrivals but slightly fewer overnight stays (about 2% down), with the UK and US leading and one “surging” market standing out. Fuel Prices Ahead: Croatia isn’t facing a diesel shortage, but analysts warn prices will rise as global refining and supply pressures persist.

Wages Watch: Croatia’s average net salary rose to €1,555 in June 2026, up 7.7% year-on-year, with real growth of 3.1%; aviation led the pay league at €2,330 net, while clothing manufacturing lagged at €988. Housing & Rentals: Croatia is preparing a new Law on Renting Apartments, aiming to tighten long-term rental rules, add contract requirements and longer notice periods, and push empty homes into the market. Credit Controls: The Croatian central bank (HNB) will tighten consumer-lending limits from Oct 1, cutting the share of high-risk residential loans above DSTI thresholds and reducing high-LTV approvals. Energy Costs: Croatia isn’t facing a diesel shortage, but prices are set to rise again as refinery capacity constraints and global supply shocks keep pressure on fuel markets. Climate & Agriculture: Central Croatia’s grape harvest is shifting earlier into August as milder winters and changing rainfall accelerate ripening, with expectations of lower yields but good quality. Transport & Tourism: Ryanair carried nearly 95,000 passengers on the Zagreb–London Stansted route in H1 2026, up 20.3%, as low-cost capacity expands. Environment Law: Croatia is moving toward introducing “ecocide” as a criminal offence, with the most serious cases potentially facing life imprisonment. Tech in Mobility: Uber launched Europe’s first self-driving ride service in Zagreb, marking a new step for autonomous transport in the region.

Housing Policy: Croatia is preparing a new Law on Renting Apartments that could tighten long-term rental rules, add formal contract requirements, extend notice periods and reshape rent-setting, while also increasing obligations for local authorities and creating a new agency role—aimed at boosting security for both landlords and tenants and encouraging owners to put empty homes on the market. Consumer Finance: The Croatian National Bank plans to tighten consumer lending from October 1, cutting the share of residential consumer loans above DSTI 45% to 10% (from 20%), lowering non-residential quotas, and reducing high-LTV (above 90%) real-estate-backed loan shares to 10% (from 20%) to protect financial stability as household borrowing stays strong. Energy Costs: Croatian drivers may see another fuel-price jump next week as the Iran-war-linked energy shock keeps refining pressure high; projections point to Eurosuper 95 up to about €1.65/l and Eurodiesel toward €1.86/l. Transport & Tourism: Ryanair carried nearly 95,000 passengers on the Zagreb–London Stansted route in H1 2026 (+20.3%), while Croatia’s tourism push also highlights Koper as a cheaper “Venice alternative.” Tech & Mobility: Uber launches Europe’s first robotaxi rides in Zagreb, adding a new layer to the city’s transport experiment.

Fuel Watch: Croatia could see another jump in pump prices next week as the Iran-war shock keeps pressure on global refining. Early projections point to Euro-super 95 up to about €1.65/l (+2 cents) and diesel higher—Eurodiesel to €1.86/l (+6) and “blue diesel” to €1.32/l (+5)—with the government expected to confirm the final numbers on Monday. Energy Poverty Protections: Parliament is set to consider amendments to Croatia’s Electricity Market Act to ban disconnections for vulnerable, energy-poor households and require suppliers to warn on unusual consumption, offer flexible repayment plans, and guide access to support. Environment & Justice: Croatia is preparing to introduce “ecocide” as a criminal offence, with the most serious cases potentially carrying life imprisonment, as part of a push to tackle waste and severe environmental damage. Transport & Tourism: Ryanair carried nearly 95,000 passengers on the Zagreb–London Stansted route in H1 2026 (+20.3%), while Air Serbia plans to add a third weekly Belgrade–Brač flight from June 2027. Geothermal Pipeline: A consultation has opened for a €35.15m tender to drill four exploratory geothermal wells in Velika Gorica, Osijek, Vinkovci and Zaprešić. Wildfire Pressure: Europe’s wildfire season is worsening, with Croatia reporting major firefighting activity around Omiš and on Pelješac, including casualties and evacuations.

Croatia Energy Policy: The Croatian government has sent draft amendments to the Electricity Market Act to Parliament to ban electricity disconnections for vulnerable households facing energy poverty, while requiring suppliers to warn about unusual consumption spikes and offer flexible repayment plans plus debt-management guidance and access to support/vouchers. Aviation & Tourism: Ryanair boosted Zagreb–London Stansted traffic, carrying 94,289 passengers in H1 2026 (+20.3%) after adding capacity (+23%), while Air Serbia plans to add a third weekly Belgrade–Brač flight from June 1, 2027. Transport & Cities: Uber has launched autonomous rides in Zagreb via a partnership with Verne and Pony.ai, with a safety operator at launch; Zagreb also continues tram infrastructure upgrades (over €3m). Tech & Industry: Croatia-based Neuromorphyx and BrainChip launched the BrainBoard1500, an Arduino Nicla-compatible board for the AKD1500 neuromorphic accelerator. Geothermal Push: Croatia opened a preliminary consultation for a €35.15m tender to drill four exploratory geothermal wells (Velika Gorica, Osijek, Vinkovci, Zaprešić). Wildfires & Costs: Record heat and drought are driving a severe wildfire season; Croatian firefighters battled major blazes including the Omiš area, with casualties and evacuations reported. Nord Stream Legal Fallout (EU energy security): Croatian authorities arrested a Ukrainian diver linked to the 2022 Nord Stream sabotage, with reports tying the arrest to a Hollywood film set in Pula.

Nord Stream Case in Croatia: A Croatian court ordered custody for a Ukrainian scuba diver (Vladimir/Volodymyr Zhuravlyov) wanted by Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, with extradition proceedings now moving forward. Tourism Value Push: Croatia’s tourism debate is shifting from visitor counts to “value for money,” as occupancy stays high but quality and pricing pressure the next season. Food Inflation Risk: Croatia’s agriculture adviser warns drought damage could feed into higher food prices next year, with estimates ranging from +20% to +40%. Landlords vs New Rules: Croatian small landlords filed an objection with the European Commission, arguing new Hospitality Activity Act provisions could force re-categorisation and give neighbours power to block rentals. Retail Expansion: Victoria’s Secret is set to open its first Croatian store in Zagreb (Arena Centar) in Q4 2026 via Alshaya. Robotaxi Rollout: Uber launches autonomous rides in Zagreb (with a safety driver) and expands driverless robotaxi services in Europe, including Croatia-linked deployments. Climate & Wildfires: EU wildfire response is under scrutiny as the bloc leans on professional firefighters, with Eurostat data highlighting big differences across countries. Tourism Pressure Data: Eurostat shows Greece’s regions are among the most tourism-saturated in the EU, with Croatia’s Adriatic coast also high on overnight stays per resident. Drought Reveals History: Europe’s rivers are running dry, exposing old shipwrecks like Serbia’s “Sava’s Titanic,” underscoring disruption to trade and water supplies.

Nord Stream Case in Croatia: Germany says a Ukrainian scuba diver, Volodymyr Zhuravlyov, was arrested in Pula on a European warrant over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, with extradition sought as Croatian police verify his identity. Hollywood Meets Intelligence: Media reports add a bizarre twist: the suspect was working as an advisor on a Doug Liman film about the blasts starring Adrien Brody and Sean Penn, turning the arrest into a real-life plotline. Uber’s Driverless Push in Zagreb: Uber, Pony.ai and Croatian operator Verne launched autonomous rides in Zagreb via the Uber app, with a safety operator still monitoring each trip for now. Retail Expansion: Victoria’s Secret is set to open its first Croatian store in Zagreb’s Arena Centar by Q4 2026, bringing the brand from webshop to in-person shopping. Tourism Numbers: Dubrovnik logged 857,349 arrivals and 2,744,235 overnight stays from Jan 1 to Aug 12, about 1% up year-on-year. Water Polo Success: Croatia’s youth water polo teams swept three titles this summer—U16 and U18 world champions, plus U20 European champions—marking an unprecedented run. Media Independence Watch: Bosnia journalists’ group warns that changes at Adria News outlets, including the dismissal of N1 director Amir Zukić, could threaten editorial independence.

Autonomous Mobility in Croatia: Uber, Verne and Pony.ai launched autonomous rides in Zagreb via the Uber app, with a licensed safety operator onboard at first and service expanding over time—Pony.ai supplies the tech, Verne runs the fleet, Uber handles the rider experience. Banking Tax Shock: Croatia’s government plans a 50% levy on “excess” bank profits, targeting euro-era windfalls; the sector still posted €1.4bn net profit in 2025 and strong capital buffers, but the new rule is aimed at cooling inflation pressures. Robotaxi Business Momentum: Pony.ai reported Q2 robotaxi revenue up 691% and said its overseas deployment pipeline now exceeds 4,000 vehicles, signaling commercialization beyond China. Energy Security & Cross-Border Justice: Croatia arrested a second Ukrainian suspect in the Nord Stream sabotage case; German prosecutors seek extradition, adding to the wider legal fallout from the 2022 blasts. Labor Mobility to Europe: A report says Nepali workers increasingly choose Europe over the Gulf, with permits rising for countries including Croatia. Tourism & Travel Retail: Tony’s Chocolonely is expanding in airport duty free through Lagardère Travel Retail, adding Zagreb among many locations. Croatia’s Wider Economy: Croatia’s foreign-owned banks remain highly profitable in the euro transition—now facing a direct policy response.

Autonomous Mobility in Zagreb: Uber, Verne and Pony.ai launched autonomous rides on the Uber app in Zagreb, letting riders in Europe book an AV trip for the first time. Robotaxi Finance Watch: Pony.ai reported Q2 2026 revenue up 68.8% to 246m yuan, with robotaxi revenue up 691% to 81.9m yuan as overseas deployments scale toward 4,000+ vehicles. Nord Stream Legal Fallout (Croatia): German prosecutors say a second Ukrainian suspect, Vladimir Z., was arrested in Pula on a European warrant and will be extradited to Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts. Transport & Trade Links: Croatia confirmed Air China will start a Beijing–Bucharest–Zagreb route from 4 September 2026 (three weekly flights), aiming to boost tourism and business ties with China. Infrastructure Build: Construction began on the €38.5m Drniš bypass phases 2 and 3, with 30 months planned and major bridge/viaduct works. Agri-Food Pressure: Croatia imported more olive oil than it produced for the first time as 2025 output fell sharply and imports rose amid drought and heat.

Tourism Under Pressure: Croatia’s peak season is getting weird: hotels and camps are near full, but private apartments in Istria still have vacancies as guests increasingly book only days before arrival, pushing landlords to offer more flexibility, shorter minimum stays and last-minute discounts. Heat as an Economic Risk: Extreme temperatures are now hitting Croatia’s tourism and agriculture hard, with estimates putting the damage at about 1% of GDP and DHMZ warning that hotter summers mean lower productivity and higher adaptation costs. Disaster Relief for Small Businesses: After the Omiš-area fire, entrepreneurs and small landlords are asking the government for an emergency, pre-set relief model—tax, tourism, chamber and local charge exemptions—so help doesn’t require months of special decisions. Hazardous Waste Accountability: President Zoran Milanović has demanded an urgent parliamentary session over an illegal hazardous waste dump near Gospić, citing groundwater contamination concerns and calling for rapid remediation and public updates. Blue Economy Link-Up: Cyprus and Croatian business groups will meet in Limassol on Sept 25 for a blue economy forum and B2B meetings, aiming to turn maritime innovation into cross-border deals. Digital Evidence Rules: The EU’s e-Evidence regulation is now fully applicable, speeding up cross-border requests to tech firms for digital data—an important shift for how investigations work across member states. Robotaxi Expansion (Croatia Connection): Pony.ai says its overseas robotaxi pipeline has topped 4,000 vehicles, with a major Uber-backed rollout across Europe that builds on its existing Zagreb operations.